538 Presidential Election 2024 Prediction

538 Presidential Election 2024 Prediction. The model builds on our general election polling averages by asking not just what our best guess is about who is leading the presidential race today,. The ingredients that go into the forecast, how we process them and how we ultimately.

For 2024, 538 built a new presidential election forecast model from the ground up. Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.